really the best of all possible worlds?

Given two equally good roads, the majority of drivers will pick the more crowded road...

... and of course I have fewer friends than my friends have on average.



So the following is not too surprising: We assume that we can assign a "quality of life" value Q to each world in the multiverse of all possible worlds, with Q=0 meaning "boring as hell" and Q->infinity meaning a world "approaching heaven". But then we either live most likely in a world of less quality than the average world - or the total Q grows (less than) linear with the sample size, which means the multiverse as a whole is of low quality...



inspired by Marginal Revolution

under my umbrella

"I would like to know whether it is likely to rain tomorrow. However, when I ask an Everett follower, all she will tell me in direct response to my question is that `it will rain and it won't rain.'
Nevertheless, she is willing to tell me whether or not it is rational for me to take an umbrella. I suppose that if she tells me that it would be highly irrational for me to take an umbrella, I can take the hint and deduce that it is very unlikely to rain.

However, there does seem something wrong with the fact that she is not allowed to say this directly."



Robert Wald reviewed Many Worlds?: Everett, Quantum Theory, and Reality

efficiency

Cosma writes about power laws and psycho killers;
The usual story - somebody sees a power law when e.g. a log-normal distribution would be a much better fit.

This suggests that three toed sloths and the internet are not fully efficient distributors of information.



Meanwhile, on intrade I saw (Jan 24, 8am ET) some interesting odds for the Dow Jones Industrial index, suggesting that markets are not always fully efficient either:

Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 11750 on 31 Jan 2012: probability = 91.5%

Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12000 on 31 Jan 2012: probability = 93.0%

Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12250 on 31 Jan 2012: probability = 97.0%



So I wonder about the odds in a cliché betting market...

the isle of Elba

"Frequentists have long been in a kind of exile when it comes to statistical philosophy. ... This may now be changing."



Deborah Mayo has a blog.